When a party gains Senate seats over the course of two consecutive elections, conventional wisdom holds that the bill is set to come due the third time around.
But even as the media keeps its focus on 2008's lingering Senate contests, there are some early indications that 2010 could be another strong year for Democrats. Republicans will once again be defending more seats (18-15) unless several Democrats retire unexpectedly from the body in the next 24 months.
Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the Cook Report, says it's shaping up to be another bad year for Republicans. "This does not look to be a good cycle for them," she said. Duffy noted that by the time 2012 rolls around, Republicans may finally win some seats back, since the Democrats will be defending 24 seats, to their nine. "But still," she added, "it's a long, very, very sad road, if you're the GOP."
A Democratic official, speaking on background, echoed Duffy's analysis (though with a bit more glee).
In Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell just faced a tight race, Republicans should get ready to do it all over again (and then some) with Sen. Jim Bunning, who won in 2004 by just over one percentage point. "He was sort of a sloth the last time, just barely getting over the line," the Dem operative said. With any kind of national money targeting him in 2010, the operative predicted Bunning, if he were to run, would lose.
The Cook Report's analyst offered some agreement. "Democrats have a bench. But they've got to get the right candidate. The advantage last time was that it took Democrats so long to find a candidate. I don't think that's going to happen this time. I also don't think that McConnell's [victory] forebodes anything for this race."
In Kansas, the Democratic operative said current Gov. Kathleen Sebelius could conceivably run for the seat likely being vacated by Sen. Sam Brownback. "She's already won two statewide elections in a very red state. She'd be the strongest candidate of either party."
Duffy agreed Sebelius would be a strong candidate, but added, "she's probably gonna get a primary" should she run. "Republicans have a
couple of House members, of course," she noted, as well as a crowded field in the governor's race that could thin out if one or two Republicans look
for less-contested electoral ground. Meanwhile, Duffy is not even convinced that Brownback -- who said he would only serve two terms -- is truly resigning.
"Until Brownback definitely says 'I'm out,' and she announces, I have the seat as lean Republican... People have been known to change their
minds."
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